Most accountable care organizations aren’t assuming enough financial risk under the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP), and that’s caused the popular ACO program to fall $2 billion short of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) 2010 value-based care savings forecast, according to this new analysis by healthcare consultancy Avalere.

Rather, MSSP organizations have increased spending by $384 million.

But that doesn’t yet mean that the program has failed — Avalere’s results showed that cost savings are positively correlated with length of participation in the program, and with participation in MSSP’s shared-risk tracks.

Most participants are relatively new to the program and are testing it out under the upside-only Track 1. 9% of participants moved into shared-risk tracks last year and generated more savings than they had under Track 1.

“Data do suggest that more experienced ACOs and those accepting two-sided risk may help the program to turn the corner in the future,” Avalere Health director John Feore told Rev Cycle Intelligence‘s Jacqueline Belliveau.

 Get the full story here, from Rev Cycle Intelligence.